Latest updates on Key Economic Indicators

Australian Dollar: $0.7170 USD (up $0.0020 USD)

Iron Ore Dec Spot Price (SGX): $113.09 USD (up $0.09 USD)

Oil Price (WTI): $39.03 USD (up $1.27 USD)

Gold Price: $1,897.89 (down $9.12 USD)

Dow Jones: 27,924.32 (up 373.66 points)

All changes compared to 7am yesterday.

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Joe Biden is tipped to win the US presidential election, but polling is never as simple as it seems

Polls highly favour Joe Biden to win the US presidential election.

These polls are not just abstract information. By telling prospective voters who is the most likely to win, can they influence the result of the election by playing a role in the voters' decision? The evidence says yes, and it most likely favours Biden.

In theory, you could imagine two possible effects of polls. First, a momentum effect. Second, an underdog effect.

A momentum effect could benefit the candidate either leading or gaining in the polls. It can motivate their supporters to vote (the bandwagon effect) and demotivate the supporters of the other candidate (the discouragement effect).

An underdog effect, on the other hand, could penalise the leading candidate.

This is because supporters think it's a done deal and don't mobilise to vote (resting on their laurels) or because the supporters of the trailing candidate are motivated by the idea of losing (a back-to-the-wall effect).

These different effects tap into some of our intuitive psychology. It is therefore hard to know the net effect of polls.

Some evidence points to the possibility of an underdog effect when a party is just behind.

This was the case in 2016, when Trump edged out Hillary Clinton in key states despite her lead in national polls.

But the overwhelming message from the relevant research is that positive polls increase a candidate's chance of winning.

Momentum effect: it helps to be ahead

In laboratory experiments recreating elections in controlled settings, California Institute of Technology economist Marina Agranov and colleagues found polls "lead to more participation by the expected majority and generate more landslide elections".

A similar effect has been observed in real elections.

The West Coast effect

In the United States the possibility of such an effect of early information has been discussed as the "West Coast effect", whereby voters in California and other western US states can be influenced by early results from the east coast, three hours ahead.

This issue became very salient in 1980 when NBC released an early prediction at 8:00pm New York time that Republican presidential candidate Ronald Reagan would beat Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter.

The polls were still open in many western states at the time. Research found this early call had a discouraging effect on prospective Democrat voters, making them less likely to vote.

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Pelosi's power takes a hit with diminished US House majority

Bloomberg - Page Online : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Billy House - PortMac.News Summary

At least seven Democrats have lost their seats in the US House of Representatives, which may reduce the power and influence of House speaker Nancy Pelosi.

This will be particularly the case in negotiations with the Trump administration on a new round of coronavirus relief measures; Pelosi will also face pressure from a growing progressive wing of the Democrats, which will have greater influence in the wake of the presidential election.

Meanwhile, the Democrats are likely to have control of the House, but Pelosi may have to contend with a Republican-controlled Senate in what may be her last term in Congress.

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Interesting times for US pollsters

Market Research Update - Page Online : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Michele Levine, Gary Morgan, Julian McCrann - PortMac.News Summary

Not since 1948 has US polling been so poorly regarded. Regardless of whether or not Donald Trump is re-elected, he has proven the polls wrong again.

Since the 1960s, there has been a bias towards the party or leader that everyone 'thinks will win'.

This is especially the case with telephone polls, robo-polling and online polls.

In the US this phenomenon (the bias towards the party/leader people 'think will win') was demonstrated to the extreme - as it did in the previous Presidential election. Essentially pollsters didn't interview enough people who were 'intending' to vote for Trump; and if they did interview Trump supporters many were too frightened to say they would vote for Trump.

The best way to measure 'voting intention' accurately is with 'face-to-face' interviews conducted with a representative sample of people using a 'secret ballot'.

Of course things can change in politics, as voters did in Queensland, when Pauline Hansen's vote almost halved when she publicly called to 'open' Queensland borders.

However in the US the polls simply got it wrong - with Trump concentrating on the economy - and blue collar jobs - while Biden and the media were focused on COVID.

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Masks here to stay, says Dan Andrews

Herald Sun - Page 14 : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Kieran Rooney - PortMac.News Summary

Victoria has recorded five consecutive days with no new coronavirus cases; there are now just 30 active cases across the state, and Melbourne's 14-day rolling average of new cases has fallen to 1.7.

Premier Daniel Andrews says the state government is on track to announce a further easing of lockdown restrictions on 8 November.

However, he has cautioned that wearing a face mask in public places is likely to remain mandatory in the near-term, arguing that Victorians must not become complacent.

Meanwhile, there are 49 active locally-acquired COVID-19 cases in NSW.

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Australia buys two more vaccine candidates

The Australian Financial Review - Page 3 : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Phillip Coorey - PortMac.News Summary

The federal government has secured an agreement to buy up to 40 million doses of a COVID-19 vaccine that is being developed by Novavax.

The government will also buy 10 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine candidate that is under development by Pfizer and BioNTech.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison says the government will also buy other vaccine candidates if they are recommended by medical experts.

The government now has agreements in place to buy about 130 million doses of four vaccine candidates, should they prove to be effective. Morrison has reiterated that vaccination will not be compulsory.

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Reduced aid 'led to fall in jobs'

The Australian - Page 6 : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Adam Creighton - PortMac.News Summary

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggests that the total number of jobs nationwide fell by 0.8 per cent over the fortnight to October 17.

This followed the first reduction in fortnightly payments under the JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme.

Andrew Boak of Goldman Sachs says this may have contributed to the decline in jobs; however, he notes that the ABS data excludes sole traders, while the data tends to be "revised up" over time.

The ABS has also reported that retail spending fell by 1.1 per cent in September.

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China spat puts $149bn trade at risk

The Australian - Page 1 & 8 : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Will Glasgow, Ben Packham - PortMac.News Summary

There is growing concern that the Chinese government is set to impose bans on more Australian imports.

Wine producers have become the latest casualty of escalating tensions between the two nations, with Chinese customs officials preventing them from exhibiting at the China International Import Expo.

The lobster industry has also been targeted, with a shipment worth more than $2m having to be destroyed after it was delayed at a Chinese airport. Unconfirmed media reports in China have suggested that a widespread ban on Australian imports - including coal, copper and sugar - will take effect on 6 November.

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Proposed federal ICAC won't be able to prevent corruption, critics say

The Guardian Australia - Page Online : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Christopher Knaus - PortMac.News Summary

Transparency International Australia CEO Serena Lillywhite has questioned whether the federal government's proposed Commonwealth Integrity Commission will be effective.

She argues that the model outlined in the draft legislation will restrict it to holding private inquiries into systemic integrity issues. In contrast, many state-based anti-corruption commissions are required to hold public inquiries into such issues.

Lillywhite contends that holding corruption investigations behind closed doors will undermine trust in such inquiries.

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Builders accept lower pay rises in non-union deals

The Australian Financial Review - Page 2 : 5 November 2020 -Original article by David Marin-Guzman - PortMac.News Summary

The Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining & Energy Union has downplayed the significance of a decision by employees of two construction firms to endorse a non-union enterprise agreement.

The CFMMEU's New South Wales secretary Darren Greenfield argues that FDC and Lipman only employ a small number of workers.

Employees of another three NSW builders have rejected a non-union agreement.

Master Builders Association NSW director Brian Seidler says the two successful ballots is one of the "most significant turning points" for the construction industry.

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Capp vows to rouse Melbourne after being returned as lord mayor

The Australian Financial Review - Page 2 : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Patrick Durkin - PortMac.News Summary

Melbourne Lord Mayor Sally Capp has been re-elected for a second term.

Capp gained 27,949 first-preference votes, ahead of Greens candidate Apsara Sabaratnam with 14,753 votes and former deputy lord mayor Aaron Wood with 13,497 votes.

Capp says that revitalising Melbourne in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic will be a big challenge. City of Melbourne councillor Nicholas Reece will be the new deputy lord mayor.

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Stocks end flat after choppy trade

The Australian - Page 26 : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Samantha Bailey - PortMac.News Summary

The Australian sharemarket eased on 4 November, with the S&P/ASX 200 closing 0.1 per cent lower at 6,062.1 points.

Fortescue Metals Group shed 4.6 per cent to end the session at $16.49, the Commonwealth Bank was down two per cent at $68.41 and Treasury Wine Estates fell 3.1 per cent to $8.67. However, Oil Search was up 3.3 per cent at $2.82 and Domino's Pizza Enterprises rose 2.1 per cent to $86.99.

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Banks defiant on mortgage rates

The Australian - Page 17 & 21 : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Joyce Moullakis, Lachlan Moffet Gray - PortMac.News Summary

Australia's four largest banks will keep their variable home loan interest rates unchanged, despite the Reserve Bank's decision to reduce the cash rate to a record low of 0.1 per cent.

However, the "big four" banks will all reduce their fixed home loan interest rates, with some falling below two per cent for the first time.

The majority of mortgage loans across the Australian financial sector have variable rates, although more borrowers are opting for fixed-rate loans in the low-interest rate environment.

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Health profits halve as funds turn red

The Australian - Page 21 : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Jared Lynch - PortMac.News Summary

Data from the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority shows that the nation's 37 private health insurers booked a combined profit of $723m in 2019-20.

The figures also show that 11 health funds made a loss for the financial year, compared with just five in 2018-19. Medibank and Bupa retained their rankings as Australia's leading health funds, with market shares of 26.9 per cent and 25.4 per cent respectively.

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Crown under pressure to delay casino opening

The Australian - Page 17 & 20 : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Damon Kitney, Lachlan Moffet Gray - PortMac.News Summary

Crown Resorts is scheduled to open its Barangaroo casino in Sydney on 14 December, although New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian has raised the possibility that the opening could be delayed.

The Independent Liquor & Gaming Authority's inquiry has been told that Crown is not suitable to hold the licence for the gaming venue.

Adam Bell, the counsel assisting the inquiry, also said that the shareholding of businessman James Packer has had a "deleterious impact" on Crown's corporate governance. Crown shares fell 1.75 per cent to $8.42 on 4 November.

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Home cooks push up Woolies' profits

The Australian - Page 19 : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Eli Greenblat - PortMac.News Summary

Retail giant Woolworths has reported 11.5 per cent growth in its Australian supermarkets division's same-store sales in the September quarter.

Its Australian food sales increased by 12.9 per cent overall, to $12bn.

CEO Brad Banducci believes that the strong growth in food sales is primarily due to consumers opting to eat at home rather than the impact of government stimulus measures.

He expects this trend to continue over the upcoming Christmas and New Year period due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Woolworths has also reported strong growth in online sales.

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Binding deed puts Amatil a step closer to European takeover

The Australian Financial Review - Page 29 : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Sue Mitchell - PortMac.News Summary

Coca-Cola European Partners has completed due diligence on Coca-Cola Amatil and entered into a binding scheme implementation deed with the Australian-listed company.

The proposed $9bn takeover requires the support of at least 75 per cent of CCA shareholders and approval from the Foreign Investment Review Board.

Shareholders are likely to vote on the scheme of arrangement in March. Some of CCA's institutional shareholders consider the cash offer of $12.75 per share to be opportunistic.

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Treasury Wine's new China blow

The Australian - Page 19 : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Eli Greenblat - PortMac.News Summary

Australia's wine export trade with China is facing a new potential threat, with reports that the Chinese government is being urged to impose a tariff retrospectively.

Treasury Wine Estates has claimed that the China Alcoholic Drinks Association has proposed levying the tariff on all Australian wine in containers of two litres or less.

This association had pushed for the Chinese government to undertake its anti-dumping investigation into Australian winemakers. Treasury Wines will hold its annual meeting on 5 November.

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Viewers take slow track for Melbourne Cup

The Australian - Page 22 : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Lilly Vitorovich - PortMac.News Summary

The Ten Network's coverage of the 2020 Melbourne Cup attracted about 1.41 million viewers across the five major metropolitan markets, compared with 1.44 million in 2019.

OzTAM's figures also show that the national audience for the Melbourne Cup was 1.86 million viewers, down from 1.92 million in 2019.

Ten's coverage of the iconic horse race also attracted 144,000 viewers on its 10 Play broadcast video-on-demand service.

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Harold Mitchell hit with $90k fine

The Australian - Page 19 : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Ben Wilmot - PortMac.News Summary

Advertising industry veteran Harold Mitchell has ruled out seeking to overturn a $90,000 fine for breaching the Corporations Act.

The Federal Court imposed the fine after ruling that he had failed to properly discharge his duties as a director of Tennis Australia during negotiations with the Seven Network regarding a broadcasting rights deal in 2012.

Mitchell has stated that enough taxpayers' funds have been wasted by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission during its six-year pursuit of civil charges against him.

The court dismissed most of the charges.

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Fox Corp books quarterly gains as Fox News dominates ratings

The Australian - Page 24 : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Joe Flint, Dave Sebastian - PortMac.News Summary

US media giant Fox Corporation has reported a profit of $US1.1bn for the September quarter, compared with $US499m for the same period in 2019.

Revenue was $US2.72bn, which is 1.9 per cent higher than previously. Revenue from the group's broadcasting division was steady at $US1.35bn, while cable TV network revenue was up 3.1 per cent at $US1.33bn.

Fox Corp's advertising revenue fell by 6.9 per cent.

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Gina Rinehart's wealth soars as Hancock Prospecting reports $4b profit

The Sydney Morning Herald - Page Online : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Nick Toscano - PortMac.News Summary

Hancock Prospecting has reported a 2019-20 after-tax profit of $4bn, compared with $2.6bn previously.

The company benefited from the strong price of iron ore during the financial year.

Hancock's iron ore assets include the Roy Hill mine and a 50 per cent stake in the Hope Downs joint venture.

Hancock also controls Atlas Iron, which operates the Mt Webber iron ore mine in the Pilbara.

Meanwhile, Hancock has paid a maiden dividend of $475m and repaid a $US7.2bn ($10.1bn) debt some four months ahead of schedule.

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Construction down by $5b over two years

The Australian Financial Review - Page 39 : 5 November 2020 - Original article by Michael Bleby - PortMac.News Summary

The Australian Construction Industry Forum has forecast that construction activity will fall by 3.2 per cent in 2020-21 due to the impact of COVID-19.

Construction work in the accommodation sector is tipped to fall by 34 per cent, while a 23 per cent decline in entertainment and recreation projects is expected.

However, the ACIF expects an increase in construction work in the industrial property, health and aged-care sectors. Activity in the residential construction sector is expected to remain subdued for several years, but growth in home renovations is forecast.