In Beijing, where thousands of delegates from around the country convened for a largely ceremonial meeting to rubber stamp a yearly agenda set by the Communist Party-controlled government, the focus was on domestic concerns – from economic goals to hailing the leadership of Xi Jinping.

But looming over that gathering was also the near certainty that former President Donald Trump would run against Biden in November elections – and that either winner would continue to drive a tough China policy.

Senior Chinese leaders didn’t publicly mention the American election as the Beijing event got underway. But a key strategy promoted there – to transform the country into a high-tech powerhouse – was widely seen as part of an urgent bid to safeguard the country in the face of Biden administration technology curbs and a fractious US-China relationship ahead.

Top diplomat Wang Yi flashed a clearer sign of the anxiety underlying that strategy during a press briefing on the sidelines of the gathering.

There, he reached for some of his most dramatic language to date on US trade and tech controls targeting China, saying they had hit “bewildering levels of unfathomable absurdity.”

Behind closed doors, however, observers of elite Chinese politics say, the discussion about the upcoming elections themselves is likely much more direct – especially when it comes to the impact of the return of Trump, who is widely seen as a far more unpredictable force than Biden.

The former leader reshaped relations between the world’s two largest economies with massive trade tariffs while in office four years ago.

He’s now threatening, if elected, to raise those to a level that experts say could trigger a de facto decoupling – a shock that would hit at a delicate time for the Chinese economy.

But a return of Trump to office also has the potential to upturn the current geopolitical balance, which has seen America and its allies increasingly united against Russia and the perceived threat of a rising China.

A US retreat from those partners under Trump’s “America First” stance could take pressure off China and present a significant opportunity for Beijing’s own global ambitions.

Officials who are part of the ruling Communist Party’s foreign affairs office have likely been tasked with “scenario-planning and evidence-informed analyses” of the implications of a Trump or Biden win, which would each pose different risks for Beijing, according to Brian Wong, a fellow at the University of Hong Kong’s Centre on Contemporary China and the World.

Experts say Chinese policymakers will be considering how each administration would impact China’s core goal of taking control of the self-ruling democracy of Taiwan, its drive to expand its global power and influence, and its efforts to stabilize and strengthen its already battered economy.

“The priorities are to ensure China remains secure from foreign security and military interference, that it is financially and economically secure,” Wong added.

The Trump effect:

When Trump arrived in the White House in 2017 as a political newcomer, Xi appeared to see a potential opening to strengthen ties that were showing signs of strain during the previous Obama administration.

After being welcomed to Trump’s oceanside Mar-a-Lago property in April that year, the Chinese leader hosted Trump and first lady Melania in Beijing for what was widely described at the time as a “state visit plus.”

The president was given rare perks that seemed tailored to appeal to the businessman and former reality television star, including a televised welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People and a personal tour by Xi of imperial treasures at the Forbidden City.

Then, Trump lavished praised on his host, saying they had “great chemistry,” and calling the authoritarian leader “a very special man.”

But within a year the relationship had turned contentious as Trump unleashed a major tranche of tariffs – starting with 25% on $50 billion in Chinese goods – sparking an escalating trade war.

Relations continued to spiral over a host of issues from US national security alarm over Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei to China’s handling of the outbreak of Covid-19.

This time around, Trump, who is known for his penchant for authoritarian leaders, has continued to praise Xi along the campaign trail.

But he’s also drummed up speculation that to combat what he sees as unfair trade practices he could hit Chinese imports with a tariff upward of 60% – and revoke its fundamental “permanent normalized trade relations” status.

A move at that level would create a significant upheaval in trade ties – potentially dropping China’s share in US imports from nearly one-fifth to around 3%, according to analysis by Oxford Economics.

“If this decoupling is carried out by Trump 2.0 in a very forceful way, the impact on China is going to be very severe. But whether this will happen is unclear, nobody can say what Trump will do, and this is the problem,” said Bala Ramasamy, a professor of economics at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai.

Such controls would come at an extremely bad time for the Chinese economy, which is already facing flagging consumer demand and falling prices amid a host of other issues from high youth unemployment to a property sector scourge.

Economic hardship across China is fueling mounting public frustration – as well as concern about the direction set by the ruling Communist Party leaders, who have long linked their legitimacy to economic stability and growth.

“China must be scared if Trump would return,” said Shanghai-based foreign policy analyst Shen Dingli, pointing to the lack of demand within China to pick up the excess capacity from such a potentially significant drop in exports to the US.

“Without enough to export, enough to be employed, enough to earn money to consume domestically, there would be more social challenges within China,” he said.

It’s unclear if Trump would follow through on such drastic measures, which would be highly controversial in the US and, analysts say, also have a sharp impact on the US economy and jobs, especially as Beijing would likely retaliate.

But experts say China’s business and official sectors are likely already considering contingency plans.

More Chinese firms could set up shop in places like Southeast Asia and Latin America to see their goods finished there to dodge the tax.

Chinese leaders would likely look to cultivate deeper relationships with other markets – like Europe and their partners across the Belt and Road connectivity initiative – to fill the gap.

A new trade war would also likely see a ramping up of anti-US rhetoric within China – fanned by the government and its online moderators, who would seek to channel any discontent about the economic impact on the US.

Tiawan:

Trump has supported Congressional efforts bolstering America’s unofficial relations and defense support for Taiwan.

But his talk of a general reluctance to embroil America in costly wars and of diminishing US ties with regional allies has raised concerns among some observers that he could send a signal to Beijing that Washington is not focused on the fate of Taiwan.

The former president’s return to office, however, would make for “less predictability” and could “pose greater tail-end risks when it comes to accidental kinetic escalation induced by posturing from either Beijing or Washington,” according to Wong in Hong Kong.

A second Biden term, he noted, could see a “more successful multi-lateral, concerted effort aimed at containing China,” with a “tacit agreement to not allow for unbridled escalation over Taiwan and the South China Sea,” another pressure point in relations between the two.

Biden has appeared as a staunch backer of Taiwan, at times appearing to step away from America’s policy of strategic ambiguity to say the US would defend the island militarily if attacked (though such statements have quickly been walked back by White House staffers who say the policy remains.)

Together, all this raises a complicated picture for Chinese officials. But it’s also one with a clear bottom line, according to Wang Yiwei, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing.

“Whoever wins – the structure of (US) confrontation, competition, pressure to China are still there,” he said.

Original Story By | Simone McCarthy